Welcome to the Phoma leaf spot forecast

This site provides information on the date when we expect 10% of oilseed rape plants to show symptoms of phoma leaf spot. The predictions were produced using a model published by Evans et al., 2008, Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 5, 525-531. Click here to request a reprint. The recommended threshold for fungicide application to control this disease is 10% incidence. Click on the "pointer" symbol nearest your location to see the prediction date for your area. For more information on the biology and the life cycle of the phoma stem canker pathogen, please see the Epidemiology page. Navigate to either the forecast page or details of the epidemiology of the disease using the menu on the right. 

The model published in the Interface paper is a three stage model, predicting 10% incidence of phoma leaf spotting, then subsequent canker onset in spring and canker severity at harvest. We are looking into the possibility of forecasting canker onset and severity at harvest using the 30 year mean weather data for each of the sites. These predictions could then be updated throughout the winter and spring as the actual weather happens.

 » Phoma leaf spot forecast 2009/2010 season

Rothamsted Research is an institute of the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council