Phoma leaf spot forecast, Autumn 2009

This site provides information on the date when we expect 10% of oilseed rape plants to show symptoms of phoma leaf spot. The predictions were produced using a model published by Evans et al., 2008, Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 5, 525-531. Click here to request a reprint. The recommended threshold for fungicide application to control this disease is 10% incidence. Click on the "pointer" symbol nearest your location to see the prediction date for your area.
View Larger Map Adapted from Crown copyright data supplied by the Met Office

To see a table of all sites/dates, click here

The model published in the Interface paper is a three stage model, predicting 10% incidence of phoma leaf spotting, then subsequent canker onset in spring and canker severity at harvest. We are looking into the possibility of forecasting canker onset and severity at harvest using the 30 year mean weather data for each of the sites. These predictions could then be updated throughout the winter and spring as the actual weather happens.

You may also be interested to visit the Light leaf spot forecast and phoma canker incidence forecast to further help with decisions on fungicide applications. For more information on phoma stem canker, follow this link.

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If you would like to download the above map and associated sites to Google Earth, please right click here and save this KML file to your local drive and then open this in Google Earth.